'Subtle and compelling.' Observer'One of the best books of 2021.' The Times Are we in the middle of a generational war? Are Millennials really entitled 'snowflakes'? Are Baby Boomers stealing their children's futures? Are Generation X the saddest generation? Will Generation Z fix the climate crisis? In this original and deeply researched book, Professor Bobby Duffy explores whether when we're born determines our attitudes to money, sex, religion, politics and much else. Informed by unique analysis of hundreds of studies, Duffy reveals that many of our preconceptions are just that: tired stereotypes. Revealing and informative, Generations provides a bold new framework for understanding the most divisive issues raging today: from culture wars to climate change and mental health to housing. Including data from all over the globe, and with powerful implications for humanity's future, this big-thinking book will transform how you view the world. Read more

'A necessary book for our times. But also just great fun' Saul Perlmutter, Nobel LaureateThe world is awash in bullshit, and we're drowning in it. Politicians are unconstrained by facts. Science is conducted by press release. Start-up culture elevates hype to high art. These days, calling bullshit is a noble act.Based on a popular course at the University of Washington, Calling Bullshit gives us the tools to see through the obfuscations, deliberate and careless, that dominate every realm of our lives. In this lively guide, biologist Carl Bergstrom and statistician Jevin West show that calling bullshit is crucial to a properly functioning social group, whether it be a circle of friends, a community of researchers, or the citizens of a nation. Through six rules of thumb, they help us recognize bullshit whenever and wherever we encounter it - even within ourselves - and explain it to a crystal-loving aunt or casually racist grandfather. Read more

A VITALLY IMPORTANT BOOK CHALLENGING THE MANY MISCONCEPTIONS SURROUNDING THE TOPIC OF IMMIGRATION.'A book that will force Left and Right alike to reconsider old assumptions . . . an important book' The Telegraph‘A careful, balanced, and convincing take . . . challenges much of what we think is obvious about migration’ Ian Morris, author of Why The West Rules – For Now------------------------------Authoritative and myth-busting, this is the one book you need to read to understand why we've been wrong about migration - perfect for fans of Tim Marshall's Prisoners of GeographyGlobal migration is not at an all-time high.Climate change will not lead to mass migration.Immigration mainly benefits the wealthy, not workers.Border restrictions have paradoxically produced more migration.These statements might sound counter-intuitive or just outright wrong - but the facts behind the headlines reveal a completely different story to the ones we're told about migration. In this ground-breaking and revelatory book, based on more than three decades of research, leading expert Professor Hein de Haas explodes myths from left to right that politicians, interest groups and media regularly spread about migration.Above all, How Migration Really Works offers a new vision of global migration based on facts rather than fears, and a paradigm-altering understanding of this perennially important subject. Read more

Assume nothing, question everything.This is the message at the heart of Freakonomics, Levitt and Dubner's rule-breaking, iconoclastic book about crack dealers, cheating teachers and bizarre baby names that turned everyone's view of the world upside-down and became an international multi-million-copy-selling phenomenon.'Prepare to be dazzled' Malcolm Gladwell'A sensation ... you'll be stimulated, provoked and entertained. Of how many books can that be said?' Sunday Telegraph'Has you chuckling one minute and gasping in amazement the next' Wall Street Journal'Dazzling ... a delight' Economist'Made me laugh out loud' Scotland on Sunday Read more

‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know Read more

A Book of the Year for The Economist and the Observer Our world seems to be collapsing. The daily news cycle reports the deterioration: divisive politics across the Western world, racism, poverty, war, inequality, hunger. While politicians, journalists and activists from all sides talk about the damage done, Johan Norberg offers an illuminating and heartening analysis of just how far we have come in tackling the greatest problems facing humanity. In the face of fear-mongering, darkness and division, the facts are unequivocal: the golden age is now. Read more

THE THOUGHT BOOK OF THE YEAR, THE TIMESA GUARDIAN BOOK OF THE YEAR'Game of Thrones-style intra-elite conflict meets big data' TLS'Extraordinary. . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work' BloombergOne of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time offers a brilliant new theory of how society works What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power?For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no-one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result: a ground-breaking account of how society works.The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future: an escape from the patterns of the past.BEST BOOKS OF SUMMER 2023: THE GUARDIAN * THE TIMES * SUNDAY TIMES Read more

'A statistical national treasure' Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2'Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force' Popular ScienceDo busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science.Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. 'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' Nature Read more

There are potentially hundreds of people who have experienced bizarre events of Telephone Calls from the Dead, and much like ghosts, and any other parapsychological phenomena, they appear to be highly common. Once all explanations have been considered, psychological and physical, are we genuinely faced with the reality of contact with the dead and evidence for survival?This question has been asked before, and was investigated back in 1979, in a book entitled Phone Calls from the Dead, written by D. Scott Rogo and Raymond Bayless. For many years, this subject has remained dormant, until now. Read more

Modern statistics is very different from the dry and dusty discipline of the popular imagination. In its place is an exciting subject which uses deep theory and powerful software tools to shed light and enable understanding. And it sheds this light on all aspects of our lives, enabling astronomers to explore the origins of the universe, archaeologists to investigate ancient civilisations, governments to understand how to benefit and improve society, and businesses to learn how best to provide goods and services. Aimed at readers with no prior mathematical knowledge, this Very Short Introduction explores and explains how statistics work, and how we can decipher them. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable. Read more

Steven Levitt, the original rogue economist, and Stephen Dubner have spent four years uncovering the hidden side of even more controversial subjects, from terrorism to shark attacks, cable TV to hurricanes. The result is Superfreakonomics. It reveals, among other things: - Why you are more likely to be killed walking drunk than driving drunk - How a prostitute is more likely to sleep with a policeman than be arrested by one- Why terrorists might be easier to track down than you would imagine- How a sex change could boost your salaryBecause sometimes the most superfreaky solution is the simplest. Read more

The inevitable is coming fast. We know it in our bones—and it’s past time to face it. The highly anticipated follow-up to Hospicing Modernity: how we activate responsibility, nurture care, and grow up in the face of collapse—includes reflections, exercises, and promptsClimate collapse, social crisis, the decline of modernity: colonialism, capitalism, and our full-faced denial have ushered in an urgent new era. Hospicing Modernity asked us to grow up, step up, and show up for our communities and the living Earth. Outgrowing Modernity helps us make sense of where we’re going—and deepen what’s possible—in a time of endings.Vanessa Machado De Oliveira helps us face the logics and workings of modernity, bringing us to clear-eyed terms with its expiration. She explores the impacts of colonialism as neurocolonization: an oppressive function of modernity that rewires how we think, act, imagine, and adapt. These impacts are wide-ranging and run deep: they cut us off from our natural ways of building community and seeking pleasure. They choke our ability to cope with trauma and embrace complexity. And they trap us in a state of artificial comfort and denial that keeps us from collectively growing up—even when our existence demands it.This book invites you to interrupt 5 lies that neurocolonization instills in us—beliefs (and behaviors) that have condition us to think we’re owed the following, regardless of others or the planet:Moral and epistemic self-righteous authorityUnrestricted, unaccountable autonomyArbitrating truth, law, and common senseAffirming one's virtues, innocence, and purityExploitative appropriation and accumulation of various forms of capitalIn moving away from these ingrained worldviews, we can choose instead to develop 4 capacities necessary to our—and Earth’s—survival: sobriety, maturity, discernment, and responsibility.Machado De Oliveira moves beyond critique into a praxis of strategic disinvestment: one that invites us to recognize what no longer serves us and reinvest in nurturing structures and lifeways that restore our knowledge in the value of life for life’s sake. Read more

'A great introduction to a crucial topic' Bill Gates'Perhaps the most popular book on statistics ever published ... It's a marvel ... gave me a peek behind the curtain of statistical manipulation, showing me how the swindling was done so that I would not be fooled again' Tim HarfordIn 1954, Darrell Huff decided enough was enough. Fed up with politicians, advertisers and journalists using statistics to sensationalise, inflate, confuse, oversimplify and - on occasion - downright lie, he decided to shed light on their ill-informed and sneaky ways. How to Lie with Statistics is the result - the definitive and hilarious primer in the ways statistics are used to deceive.With over one and half million copies sold around the world, it has delighted generations of readers with its cheeky takes on the ins and outs of samples, averages, errors, graphs and indexes. And in the modern world of big data and misinformation, Huff remains the perfect guide through the maze of facts and figures that are designed to make us believe anything.'A hilarious exploration of mathematical mendacity.... Every time you pick it up, what happens? Bang goes another illusion!' The New York Times'A pleasantly subversive little book guaranteed to undermine your faith in the almighty statistic' Atlantic Read more

Why don't flight attendants get tipped? If you were a terrorist, how would you attack? And why does KFC always run out of fried chicken? Over the past decade, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner have published more than 8,000 blog posts on Freakonomics.com. Now the very best of this writing has been carefully curated into one volume, the perfect solution for the millions of readers who love all things Freakonomics.Discover why taller people tend to make more money; why it's so hard to predict the Kentucky Derby winner; and why it might be time for a sex tax (if not a fat tax). You'll also learn a great deal about Levitt and Dubner's own quirks and passions. Surprising and erudite, eloquent and witty, Freaks and Friends demonstrates the brilliance that has made their books an international sensation. Read more

A lively, practical, first-of-its-kind guide to understanding cold, clinical data and harnessing it to tell a persuasive story.__________How many hours' worth of songs are on your Spotify Wrapped this year?How much is your commute time really worth?How do you work out how likely you are to get Covid based on the official statistics?How do your viewing hours track against the most popular shows on Netflix?Whether you're interested in global problems like climate change, running a business, or just grasping how few people have washed their hands between visiting the bathroom and touching you, this book will help math-lovers and math-haters alike translate the numbers that illuminate our world.Until very recently, most languages had no words for numbers greater than five - anything from six to infinity was known as 'lots'. While the numbers in our world have become increasingly complex, our brains are stuck in the past. Yet the ability to communicate and understand numbers has never mattered more. How can we more effectively translate numbers and stats - so fundamental to the next big idea - to make data come to life?Drawing on years of research into making ideas stick, Chip Heath and Karla Starr outline six critical principles that will give anyone the tools to communicate numbers with more transparency and meaning. Using concepts such as simplicity, concreteness and familiarity, they show us how to transform hard numbers into their most engaging form, allowing us to bring more data, more naturally, into decisions in our schools, our workplaces and our society. Read more

Did you know that chicken eggs can influence how computers generate random events? Or that humans can postpone death until after important ceremonial occasions? Or live three to five years longer if they have positive initials, like ACE?All these 'facts' have been presented with a straight face by researchers and backed up with convincing statistics. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps we so often fall into. Today, data is so plentiful and our reliance on computer analysis and AI so entrenched that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful deductions and rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioural economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely, and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind the statistics. Read more

A Financial Times Book of the Week‘A fascinating, in-depth investigation into the complex landscape of misinformation from someone who has spent his career trying to combat fake news’ Angela SainiOne of the world’s top experts on fighting misinformation reveals the psychology behind its power – and how we can protect ourselves.From fake news to conspiracy theories, from pandemics to politics, misinformation may be the defining problem of our era. Like a virus, misinformation infects our minds – altering our beliefs and replicating at astonishing rates. Once the virus takes hold, our primary strategies of fact-checking and debunking are an insufficient cure.In Foolproof Sander van der Linden describes how to inoculate yourself and others against the spread of misinformation, discern fact from fiction and push back against methods of mass persuasion.Everyone is susceptible to fake news. There are polarising narratives in society, conspiracy theories are rife, fake experts dole out misleading advice and accuracy is often lost in favour of sensationalist headlines. So how and why does misinformation spread if we’re all aware of its existence? And, more importantly, what can we do about it?Sander van der Linden takes us through the psychology of conspiratorial thinking and equips us with the eleven antigens needed to help stop the spread of misinformation once and for all. Read more

Lucy Letby was found guilty at Manchester Crown Court in 2023 of the murder of 7 babies and the attempted murder of 7 more. It was a trial that was spectacular for the charges were of heinous depravity and cruelty. But the verdicts and sentence to 14 full life terms, far from bringing a sense of closure and justice brought only more conjecture and unease. The conclusion of the trial and the subsequent raising of the media restriction triggered a groundswell of dissatisfaction as many became deeply uneasy with the nature of the trial, and the lack of evidence. Even putting aside, the question, of Lucy Letby's guilt, there is still a burgeoning unease with many questioning not just the fairness of the trial, but the grounds for the entire prosecution, From the initial prejudiced police investigation through to the prosecutions use of flawed and biased presentation of the case. Its only now that important information is coming to light that was never put before the jury. Indeed information that the prosecution knew of but certainly didn't want the jury to see. But there is more ... for not only were the prosecution deliberately misleading the jury, the evidence was down right wrong and they knew it. The Thirlwall Inquiry has unintentionally surfaced evidence about a shadowy group of consultants who conspired to orchestrated events that precipitated the police investigation that led them, and the scapegoat lucy Letby, incredulously to Manchester Crown Court. The conspirators are being revealed by there own words. So bamboozled were the Cheshire Police that they even thanked the ring leaders for giving them the Golden Thread to Lucy Letby. This book is the story of, how the conspirators were able to deceive, manipulate and corrupt the Cheshire police into launching a major murder investigation - where no murders existed. This is the story of Dr Brearey and the Slaughterhouse-7, how unwittingly a band of fools driven by hubris took a path that catastrophically resulted in the greatest travesty of justice in the modern era without even trying. Murders, there were no murders. Read more

Most writing on sociological method has been concerned with how accurate facts can be obtained and how theory can thereby be more rigorously tested. In The Discovery of Grounded Theory, Barney Glaser and Anselm Strauss address the equally Important enterprise of how the discovery of theory from data—systematically obtained and analyzed in social research—can be furthered. The discovery of theory from data—grounded theory—is a major task confronting sociology, for such a theory fits empirical situations, and is understandable to sociologists and laymen alike. Most important, it provides relevant predictions, explanations, interpretations, and applications. In Part I of the book, "Generation Theory by Comparative Analysis," the authors present a strategy whereby sociologists can facilitate the discovery of grounded theory, both substantive and formal. This strategy involves the systematic choice and study of several comparison groups. In Part II, The Flexible Use of Data," the generation of theory from qualitative, especially documentary, and quantitative data Is considered. In Part III, "Implications of Grounded Theory," Glaser and Strauss examine the credibility of grounded theory. The Discovery of Grounded Theory is directed toward improving social scientists' capacity for generating theory that will be relevant to their research. While aimed primarily at sociologists, it will be useful to anyone Interested In studying social phenomena—political, educational, economic, industrial— especially If their studies are based on qualitative data. Read more

This carefully crafted ebook: "When The Sleeper Wakes (A Dystopian Science Fiction Classic)" is formatted for your eReader with a functional and detailed table of contents. The Sleeper Awakes is a dystopian science fiction novel about a man who sleeps for two hundred and three years, waking up in a completely transformed London, where, because of compound interest on his bank accounts, he has become the richest man in the world. The main character awakes to see his dreams realized, and the future revealed to him in all its horrors and malformities. Herbert George Wells (1866-1946), known as H. G. Wells, was a prolific English writer in many genres, including the novel, history, politics, and social commentary, and textbooks and rules for war games. Read more